Too Slow to Start?

We are finally here. Playoffs. Wildcard weekend. It feels so good. Let’s not get wrapped up in our emotions yet, we got some games to discuss. And for our first game, we got the Los Angeles Chargers going on down to Houston to take on the Texans. I believe this game is going to set the tone for the playoffs. A reminder that it’s not always the “best” team that wins, but the team that shows up on that day. Projections and analysis are nice, but it’s going to be up to the execution and will of each team that will bring them to victory. Not their stat lines.

The Chargers have won eight of their last eleven games, and outside a couple losses to some good teams, they managed to finish the season on a three-game win streak. They faced a tougher Raiders team to close out the season, dismantled the Pats in the week prior, and beat the Broncos another week before that. Their strengths lie with their offense, even though they are statistically better on defense. Justin Herbert has had a great year, finishing with 3,870 yards, 23 TDs, and only 3 INTs. He is extremely accurate with the football, and an alien-like arm, and is cool under pressure. J.K Dobbins is back in the mix, bringing their committee to full strength. Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnson have been getting fed, but Herbert is always able to work the ball to numerous targets, making everyone on their offense dangerous if open. On the flip side, the Chargers had the 11th ranked defense to finish the season. They have talent between Khalil Mack, Derwin James, Kristian Fulton, and when healthy, Joey Bosa. Although Bosa has had some down years in the last three years, he still remains a threat that could change the game very quickly. I think the key to the game for Los Angeles will be all-around offense. The Texans have not had the most solid footing in the last half of the season and remain much shakier on offense. If the Chargers can attack Houston’s strength, which is their defense, I believe they can contain them enough on offense. The Texans are without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. If they are able to keep Nico Collins and Joe Mixon in check and put up points on this team, they’ll win. Plus, Herbert’s got over 2,000 yards passing, 12 TDs, and 1 INT in away matchups this year.

I don’t think the Texans are doomed though; like I said, it’s the team that shows up on that day. Yes, the Texans are without Diggs, Dell, and have been without Will Anderson Jr. for a little while, but some guys are coming back. Anderson practiced Tuesday, so it’s looking better for his return and his value cannot be understated. Denico Autry and John Metchie are questionable for this week’s game, but I bet they find the strength to play. It’s the playoffs. And yes, they Texans have been on a little bit of a slide, but they beat the Texans last week, which was a huge improvement off their 31-2 loss to Baltimore in the week prior. If they are able to get into an offensive rhythm, Houston can be tough to stop. Mixon finished the season with over 1,000 yards rushing and Collins, who missed five games with injury, finished the season with over 1,000 yards receiving. Couple that with their tenacious defense, which finished the season ranked 8th overall, who will be getting guys like Anderson Jr., Christian Harris, and Folorunso Fatukasi back. This will have such a positive impact on their defense. For Houston, they need to be able to rally behind their defense. C.J. Stroud and the boys will get going, but if their defense can limit Herbert and their offense, it’s going to be tough for Los Angeles. The Texans can’t start slow, as they are 2-4 in games they score 20 points or less. And in their last four games, they’ve only eclipsed 20 points two times. I like the Chargers here. I think they’ve been much better than the Texans in the latter half of the season, and I think that’s important heading into playoffs. Add the injuries and slow play from the Texans, I think Los Angeles moves on 30-20.

POSTGAME:

The Chargers had this game in the bag. I swear. If C.J. Stroud does not connect with Hutchinson on that 3rd and 16 from basically their own endzone, the Chargers win this game. I firmly believe that. The Chargers were having their way with Houston in the first half of the game. While it was only 6-0 before the Texans scored before halftime to make it 6-7, if the Chargers capitalize on their red zone trips and don’t settle for field goals, they win this game. There were some big miscues from the Chargers, one of them being a drop from Will Dissly on 2nd and 19, who dropped the first down conversion that would’ve put them well inside the redzone. But that was the story of the game. The Chargers were unable to capitalize early, and the Texans made them pay on defense. Justin Herbert threw 4 INTs this game. He only threw 3 INTs all regular season. It was a complete collapse from Los Angeles. They started to get behind after the Texans found some rhythm and then were stifled by defense. Herbert looked uncomfortable, his receivers were having trouble catching the ball, and that was that.

The Texans defense was key to their win. Let me rephrase that, it was the reason they won. Stroud was not playing well until the second half, as he finished the half with 180 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. But between Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Will Anderson Jr., this team cooked. They face a tough Chiefs team next week, who are coming off a first round bye. If the Texans want to carry, they need to stack some offensive production earlier to their prolific defense than they did last game.